Are the Predictions Making Your Head Spin Yet?

I like to keep up with news about the writing biz, but right now many articles and blogs are focusing on predictions for 2016. Truth be told, I don’t have any predictions and won’t even try. I’d rather let things unfold and see what happens. But I am curious to learn what others have to say. This week, I read only four viewpoints before my head started to spin. This one example will explain why.

Jane Friedman wrote a piece on issues to watch for in the coming year. They’re not quite predictions, but she is looking ahead. Among her five issues, is the subheading “Sorry, But Print Sales Aren’t Surging”, where she questions (as do others) a New York Times piece about ebook sales slipping and print being far from dead. She refers to stats to support her argument. The Times article also refers to stats to support its premise.

Then there’s a Digital Book World blogger who’s stepped boldly forward to offer ten predictions for the coming year. The first one on his list is “Continued Regrowth of Print Sales”. Do you feel that tingling in your head yet? Amazon is referred to in both blogs, although not at opposite ends of the spectrum. Digital Book World believes that Amazon will operate more quietly thanks to all the bad PR from highly public battles in 2015, but that they will continue to pursue an aggressive marketing plan. Friedman thinks they’ll continue to tinker with programs such as KDP and Kindle Unlimited. Aggressive planning and tinkering don’t mean the same thing, and my point is who really knows? They are after all only predictions, right? Maybe I shouldn’t take any of it too seriously.

Of course, it’s good to know what’s going on in the industry, but I’ve found over the years that it’s pretty tough to find across-the-board agreement on anything. When it comes right down to it, no one really knows everything that’s going on, what the coming trends will be, or which publishing choices will earn a writer a decent income. Varied viewpoints are inevitable and even necessary, but for new writers they can also be a confusing slippery slope. For 2016, how about we just set some writing goals and get down to work while the year unfolds in its own unique way.

Happy 2016 and wishing you that you’ll accomplish all of your goals!!

Debra

A Tough Year Ahead?

After last week’s review of 2014, I’ve been reading a number of predictions about this year, and let me tell you, it’s not a cheery picture.

As Mike Shatzkin reports in his popular blog, he suspects that many (but not all) indie authors will continue to lose income possibly due to a serious supply and demand problem. In other words, readers have either loaded up their Kindles with far more than they could possibly read or they’ve joined Kindle Unlimited’s (KU) subscription service to borrow books. It appears that a growing number of indie authors are earning significantly less per book on borrows than they would have through sales. He makes a good point that readers who were willing to try a lower priced, indie book by an unknown author are the same readers who are opting for KU. Simply put, there too many books and not enough readers.

These points are also referred to in a gigaom blog, which says that KU is facing strong competition from Scribd and Oyster subscription services. These two offer a wider selection of books to borrow as they have agreements with a couple of big five publishers HarperCollins and Simon & Schuster, which KU doesn’t have. As the blog notes, it will be interesting to see if these subscription services will also hurt traditional authors’ income.

By the way, to get a look at the growing author discontent about Kindle Unlimited, read this blog from The Digital Reader. The blog states that authors not in the KU program have also noticed a drop in sales. In other words, it’s quite possible that subscribers are borrowing so many books that they’re not buying anything right now. Will this change? Is a drop in authors’ income fixable, or is the beginning of the end for authors, especially those who aren’t interested in writing better books, just more books? (See last week’s blog referring to the number of indie authors who have apparently quit publishing.)

Since we’re discussing the year ahead, take a look at Mark Coker’s Smashwords blog. He provides twelve predictions for 2015, although I don’t agree with all of them. For instance, he says that more authors will aspire to indie publishing. Well, maybe more authors will choose Smashwords, given the trouble KU has caused. But it won't change the fact that there are too many books for sale and not enough readers willing to buy them.

As far as me, I’m mainly interesting in writing better books and short stories. The goal this year is to try a new genre and build a larger body of work. Honestly, I can’t wait to see what this year will bring.

Debra

Reviewing 2014

At this time year, how can you not help but reflect on the past twelve months and ponder where you’d like to be twelve months from now? For me, the year was more challenging than most, but in a good way, one that I created. In 2014, I learned how to juggle a full-time day job with publisher deadlines, promotion, bookselling events, and more writing. It was quite a juggling act but I survived. By doing so, I answered a question I’d been asking myself for a long time. Did I have the energy, drive and management skills to incorporate a nine-to-five job with my writing life? The answer is yes, but not without obstacles, days of sheer exhaustion, and lowered productivity. This year, I’m aiming for a long-term, part-time job in what I hope will be a perfect balance.

One of the things I kept up with in 2014 was to read my favorite blogs, one of which is Kristine Kathryn Rusch’s and the other is Russell Blake’s. Rusch wrote a fascinating piece reviewing 2014. Blake’s lastest blog makes some interesting predictions for 2015, referring to events that occurred this year. Both of them agree that 2015 will be harder for writers to earn a living for numerous reasons. You can read their blogs to understand why but the two things that jumped out at me were the introduction of Amazon’s Kindle Unlimited program in the summer (which has ultimately slashed most writers’ incomes) and that traditional publishers are finally learning how to compete with indie publishers by lowering the price of ebooks.

Here’s the other thing: change is a constant in the publishing/bookselling industry. Authors have changed publishing strategies, booksellers like Amazon are changing selling strategies, and readers are changing book buying habits. The giveaways and $.99 price points that worked in 2011 and 2012 don’t work nearly as well for indie authors. As Blake points out, better author branding will be essential for authors to succeed. And as Rusch points out, writing, publishing, selling, and staying successful is so hard that she calls 2014 the year of the quitter. Rusch says that a growing number of writers are no longer in the biz for a variety of reasons which she lists in her blog. Although Blake also notes that 2015 will be harder than the previous year for many authors to earn a living, he still finds this an exciting time to be a writer. I couldn’t agree more.

Yes, more change is coming. I can feel it in the wind in my own writing/publishing/selling life. But does it frighten me? Hell, no. It’s absolutely invigorating!

Until next year,

All the best,

Debra